A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
